TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Chile Primera game, scheduled for Friday, April 3, 2026 between O'Higgins FC and Audax CS Italiano.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (O'Higgins win, Audax win, draw), each resolving independently to YES or NO. Kalshi defines three outcome-specific markets that each resolve YES if their respective outcome occurs, creating a logical contradiction: on Kalshi, exactly one market must resolve YES (since only one outcome can occur), but on Polymarket, multiple markets can resolve YES simultaneously if the platform's logic is misinterpreted, or the markets are treated as independent binary propositions where only one should resolve YES. The fundamental divergence is in market structure and resolution cardinality.Hero Tip:
Critical alert: Do not assume these markets are equivalent across platforms. On Polymarket, you are betting three separate binary propositions (each can independently be YES or NO, but exactly one outcome will occur so exactly one resolves YES). On Kalshi, the three markets are explicitly outcome-contingent and mutually exclusive by design. If you hedge across platforms, ensure you understand that Polymarket's three markets function as a partition of outcomes, while Kalshi's three markets are outcome-labeled but operate under the same partition logic. The resolution source (ANFP.cl for Polymarket vs. implicit professional Chile Liga de Primera for Kalshi) is also slightly ambiguous on Kalshi.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket presents three independent binary markets (O'Higgins YES/NO, Audax YES/NO, Draw YES/NO), each with identical resolution criteria tied to the official ANFP.cl source and 90-minute regulation play. The market structure treats each outcome as a separate binary proposition, though logically only one can resolve YES. Key quote: 'If O'Higgins FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.' This phrasing is repeated identically for each of the three markets.Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi presents three outcome-contingent markets explicitly labeled 'If O'Higgins wins... then resolves to Yes', 'If Audax wins... then resolves to Yes', and 'If Tie wins... then resolves to Yes'. This structure makes the mutual exclusivity explicit: exactly one market resolves YES because exactly one outcome occurs. The resolution source is stated as 'professional Chile Liga de Primera soccer game' without explicit reference to ANFP.cl. Key quote: 'If O´Higgins wins the O´Higgins vs Audax professional Chile Liga de Primera soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 3, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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