TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Ligue 1 game, scheduled for Sunday, April 12, 2026 between OGC Nice and Le Havre AC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure creates a logical impossibility: all three outcomes (Le Havre win, Draw, Nice win) resolve to YES simultaneously, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket uses standard binary markets where exactly one outcome resolves YES per market, aligned with conventional prediction market logic.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's combined market. It violates basic prediction market logic by allowing all three mutually exclusive outcomes to resolve YES at once. Polymarket's three separate binary markets are the only logically coherent approach here.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Aligned with standard prediction market design: three separate binary markets, each covering one outcome (Le Havre win, Draw, Nice win). Exactly one market resolves YES based on the actual match result. Primary source is official Ligue 1 statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion, or credible reporting consensus if official stats are delayed. Quote: 'If Le Havre AC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'Kalshi:
Outlier: single market with three conditional resolution clauses structured as 'If [outcome], then resolves to Yes' for all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Le Havre win, Tie, Nice win). This creates a logical contradiction where the market must resolve YES regardless of match result, making it unresolvable. Quote: 'If Le Havre wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Nice wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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