TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming UEFA Europa League game, scheduled for Thursday, April 16, 2026 between Nottingham Forest FC and FC Porto.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket offers binary win/loss/draw markets, while Kalshi offers goal-margin markets. The platforms measure different settlement dimensions of the same match, creating distinct market structures and payoff profiles.Hero Tip:
On Polymarket, you are betting on match outcome only (1X2). On Kalshi, you are betting on goal differential thresholds. A Nottingham 2-0 win resolves YES on Polymarket's Nottingham win market but also YES on Kalshi's 1.5+ and 2.5+ goal margin markets. Conversely, a 1-0 Nottingham win resolves YES on Polymarket but NO on Kalshi's 1.5+ threshold. Choose your platform based on whether you want outcome certainty (Polymarket) or margin conviction (Kalshi).Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three mutually exclusive binary markets: Nottingham Forest win, FC Porto win, or Draw. Each resolves YES or NO based solely on the final 90-minute result. Resolution source is official UEFA statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match end. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup resolves NO (or YES for draw market).Kalshi:
Four goal-margin threshold markets: Nottingham wins by >1.5 goals, Porto wins by >1.5 goals, Porto wins by >2.5 goals, Nottingham wins by >2.5 goals. Each resolves YES only if the specified margin is exceeded after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Multiple Kalshi markets can resolve YES simultaneously (e.g., if Nottingham wins 3-0, both the 1.5+ and 2.5+ Nottingham markets resolve YES).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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