TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the men's college basketball game between North Carolina Tar Heels and Duke Blue Devils scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), spread betting (Duke -17.5 to -18.5), and over/under totals (146.5 to 147.5 points).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses conventional spread thresholds (18+ and 19+ point margins for Duke), while Kalshi publishes 22 separate binary markets with overlapping "more than" conditions (2.5, 5.5, 8.5, 11.5, 14.5, 17.5, 20.5, 23.5, 26.5, 29.5, 32.5 points for each team). The Kalshi structure creates logical redundancy and settlement ambiguity.Hero Tip:
Use Polymarket's spread markets as your primary reference for margin-based settlement. Verify the final official score from NCAA.com. If trading Kalshi markets, confirm with Kalshi support whether each threshold is an independent Yes/No market or if cascading logic applies (e.g., only the first triggered threshold resolves Yes).Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Moneyline resolves to winner (NC or Duke). Spreads: Duke -17.5 resolves Yes if Duke wins by 18+; Duke -18.5 resolves Yes if Duke wins by 19+. Over/Under: 146.5 resolves Over if combined score >= 147; 147.5 resolves Over if combined score >= 148. All based on final score including overtime. Cancellation = 50-50 split.Kalshi:
22 binary markets: 11 NC win-margin thresholds (2.5, 5.5, 8.5, 11.5, 14.5, 17.5, 20.5, 23.5, 26.5, 29.5, 32.5 points) and 11 Duke win-margin thresholds (identical spreads). Each states 'If [Team] wins by more than [X] points... then resolves to Yes.' No explicit guidance on whether multiple thresholds can resolve Yes simultaneously or if only one applies.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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