TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.6b
24H VOL:
$215,176,776
24H TRANSACTIONS:
595,647,402
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,321,740,341
576,656
Markets across
14,624
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,045
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Time left: 21d:01h:52m
Who will win Hart Memorial Trophy?
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Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 82¢ buys you 122 shares | Odds: 82% Total Payout: $122 | Net Profit: $22 Multiplier: 1.22x | ROI: 22% High Projected APY: 3,048% 21 days to resolution
Trade on Polymarket
At 77¢ buys you 130 shares | Odds: 77% Total Payout: $130 | Net Profit: $30 Multiplier: 1.30x | ROI: 30% High Projected APY: 3,048% 20 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks which player will be awarded the NHL Hart Memorial Trophy for the 2025–26 season. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, the aggregated consensus shows 85.0% probability that the listed player wins the award. Resolution will be determined by the official NHL announcement and Hart Memorial Trophy award ceremony published on nhl.com/awards. Watch for the Hart Trophy winner announcement on or around June 30, 2026, when the NHL officially names the recipient.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Primary resolution logic:
Official NHL announcement and Hart Memorial Trophy award ceremony (nhl.com/awards)Core resolution logic:
- Market resolves YES if and only if the named player is officially awarded the 2025–26 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy by the NHL.
- Market resolves NO if the named player does not win the award.
- If a named player is not announced as a finalist for the Hart Memorial Trophy, that market resolves NO.
- Exactly ONE market in the group (either a named player or 'Other') will resolve YES; all others resolve NO.
- Resolution is based on official NHL information, with credible reporting consensus as a secondary source if needed.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official NHL announcement and award of the Hart Memorial Trophy at the end of the 2025–26 regular season.Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket often diverge from traditional sportsbook odds because they aggregate decentralized trader belief rather than bookmaker risk management. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin; prediction markets reflect real-time supply and demand from thousands of independent participants. Hart Trophy markets typically show sharper, more reactive pricing on emerging candidates and late-season performance shifts. Comparing the two reveals whether mainstream sportsbooks are lagging market consensus or pricing in information that decentralized traders have not yet fully incorporated.
Kalshi and Polymarket can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Both platforms host the same Hart Trophy question, but price differences arise from distinct user bases, liquidity pools, and trading mechanics. Kalshi currently shows chance for the top outcome, while Polymarket reflects , a spread of percentage points. Variations stem from different fee structures, order-book depth, regional trader concentration, and timing of large trades. Arbitrage opportunities may persist briefly until traders exploit the gap, making cross-platform monitoring valuable for identifying consensus shifts and outlier pricing.
The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, following the official announcement of the Hart Memorial Trophy winner by the National Hockey League. Resolution is determined by the NHL's voting process, in which media members and fans select the player deemed most valuable to his team during the regular season. Once the league announces the winner, both Kalshi and Polymarket settle all positions accordingly. Traders should monitor the official NHL awards schedule and voting timeline leading up to the resolution date.
Hart Trophy odds shift in response to regular-season performance metrics including goals, assists, plus-minus rating, and team success. Injuries to top candidates or surprise breakout seasons from lower-ranked players trigger sharp repricing. Trade deadline moves, playoff positioning battles, and media narratives about MVP-caliber performances all influence trader sentiment. Late-season scoring streaks, milestone achievements, and team playoff seeding directly impact candidate viability. Monitor individual player statistics, team standings, injury reports, and sports media commentary to anticipate market moves before they occur.
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