TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional FA Cup soccer match between Newcastle United FC and Manchester City FC scheduled for March 7, 2026. The markets track the outcome within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's cancellation logic is internally inconsistent across its three outcome markets (Newcastle Win, Draw, Manchester City Win), while Kalshi's cancellation handling is underspecified. Both platforms agree on the 90-minute + stoppage time scope and official FA Cup statistics as the primary source, but diverge on how a canceled match with no makeup resolves.Hero Tip:
Monitor thefa.com for any postponement or cancellation announcements. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket's Draw market will resolve YES while its Win markets resolve NO—creating a guaranteed payout on the Draw regardless of the original odds. Kalshi's behavior in this scenario is unclear and should be verified directly with the platform before the event date.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate markets with inconsistent cancellation rules. Newcastle Win and Manchester City Win markets resolve NO if canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves YES if canceled with no makeup. All three use official FA Cup statistics or credible reporting within 2 hours as primary source. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes' (Draw) vs 'this market will resolve No' (Win markets).Kalshi:
Single unified market covering all three outcomes (Newcastle Win, Manchester City Win, Tie/Draw), each resolving YES if that outcome occurs. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Implies all outcomes are treated symmetrically, but cancellation handling is not specified. Quote: 'If Newcastle wins...then the market resolves to Yes' with no contingency language for cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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