TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC
kalshi
polymarket

Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC

Volume:
$3,134,389

Manchester City FC

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 8, 2026

Closed: Mar 7, 10:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Manchester City FC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,435,571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Manchester City

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,225,734
N/A
N/A
$883,071
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Newcastle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$148,833
N/A
N/A
$72,886
Settled
No
polymarket

Newcastle United FC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$147,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115,345
N/A
N/A
$58,315
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,738
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers a professional FA Cup soccer match between Newcastle United FC and Manchester City FC scheduled for March 7, 2026. The markets track the outcome within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket's cancellation logic is internally inconsistent across its three outcome markets (Newcastle Win, Draw, Manchester City Win), while Kalshi's cancellation handling is underspecified. Both platforms agree on the 90-minute + stoppage time scope and official FA Cup statistics as the primary source, but diverge on how a canceled match with no makeup resolves.Hero tip: Monitor thefa.com for any postponement or cancellation announcements. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket's Draw market will resolve YES while its Win markets resolve NO—creating a guaranteed payout on the Draw regardless of the original odds. Kalshi's behavior in this scenario is unclear and should be verified directly with the platform before the event date.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Three separate markets with inconsistent cancellation rules. Newcastle Win and Manchester City Win markets resolve NO if canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves YES if canceled with no makeup. All three use official FA Cup statistics or credible reporting within 2 hours as primary source. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve Yes' (Draw) vs 'this market will resolve No' (Win markets).
  • Kalshi: Single unified market covering all three outcomes (Newcastle Win, Manchester City Win, Tie/Draw), each resolving YES if that outcome occurs. No explicit cancellation clause provided. Implies all outcomes are treated symmetrically, but cancellation handling is not specified. Quote: 'If Newcastle wins...then the market resolves to Yes' with no contingency language for cancellation.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.