TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming MLS game, scheduled for Saturday, April 4, 2026 between New York City FC and St. Louis City SC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (NYCFC win, draw, STLSC win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three non-mutually-exclusive markets that all resolve YES simultaneously for the same match outcome, creating a fundamental logical contradiction in market structure and settlement.Hero Tip:
Do not trade across both platforms assuming equivalent exposure. On Polymarket, buying all three outcomes costs ~$3.00 and exactly one resolves YES. On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES for any match result, making the combined payout structure incompatible. Clarify with each platform whether Kalshi's three markets are intended as a single-outcome selector or as redundant affirmations before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (NYCFC win, draw, or STLSC win) resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. Key quote: 'If New York City FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (applied independently to each of the three markets).Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi defines three separate markets that all resolve YES simultaneously regardless of match outcome—one for each possible result (NYCFC win, STLSC win, or tie). Key quote: 'If New York City wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Saint Louis wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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