TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market will resolve according to the Division I conference of the men’s basketball 2026 Division 1 NCAA Tournament champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for any team from the listed conference to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament championship game per the rules of the NCAA (e.g., team is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the conference whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a national champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/basketball-men/d1); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves YES if the champion comes from ANY of five major conferences (Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, ACC, SEC) OR any other conference, creating a market that resolves YES for all possible outcomes. Polymarket offers 34 individual binary markets, each asking whether the champion comes from a specific conference, allowing for mutually exclusive outcomes where exactly one resolves YES.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's market is logically flawed and will always resolve YES regardless of outcome, making it unsuitable for trading. Polymarket's structure is sound: bet on the specific conference you believe will produce the champion. If you hold Kalshi YES, you have no real exposure to conference uncertainty.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi's six conditions cover Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, ACC, SEC, and 'any conference other than' those five, which collectively exhausts all possible outcomes. This means the market resolves YES for every realistic scenario, rendering it a tautology rather than a genuine prediction market. Key quote: 'If a team from any conference other than the Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, and Big East is the 2025-26 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Aligned with sound market design: Polymarket structures the event as 34 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific conference (America East, Atlantic 10, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, etc., plus 'another conference'). Exactly one market will resolve YES based on the actual champion's conference affiliation. Key quote: 'If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the conference whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a national champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to Other.'
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