TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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NCAA Tournament: National Champion Conference
kalshi
polymarket

NCAA Tournament: National Champion Conference

Volume:
$357,195

Big Ten

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 7, 2026

Closed: Apr 7, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Big Ten

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$83,634
N/A
N/A
$56,189
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Big Ten

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Big 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$61,045
N/A
N/A
$46,688
Settled
No
polymarket

Big 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,193
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Big East

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Big East

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39,598
N/A
N/A
$30,792
Settled
No
kalshi

SEC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$29,528
N/A
N/A
$25,103
Settled
No
polymarket

SEC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,250
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

ACC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$23,879
N/A
N/A
$18,593
Settled
No
polymarket

ACC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,979
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Any other conference

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,342
N/A
N/A
$7,213
Settled
No
polymarket

America East

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Ivy League

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$767
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

American Athletic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$652
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

ASUN (Atlantic Sun)

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Atlantic 10

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Big Sky

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Big South

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Big West

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

CAA (Coastal Athletic Association)

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Conference USA

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Horizon League

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MAAC (Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference)

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MAC (Mid-American)

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MEAC (Mid-Eastern Athletic)

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 39

Description

This market will resolve according to the Division I conference of the men’s basketball 2026 Division 1 NCAA Tournament champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for any team from the listed conference to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament championship game per the rules of the NCAA (e.g., team is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the conference whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a national champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (https://www.ncaa.com/sports/basketball-men/d1); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves YES if the champion comes from ANY of five major conferences (Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, ACC, SEC) OR any other conference, creating a market that resolves YES for all possible outcomes. Polymarket offers 34 individual binary markets, each asking whether the champion comes from a specific conference, allowing for mutually exclusive outcomes where exactly one resolves YES.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is logically flawed and will always resolve YES regardless of outcome, making it unsuitable for trading. Polymarket's structure is sound: bet on the specific conference you believe will produce the champion. If you hold Kalshi YES, you have no real exposure to conference uncertainty.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's six conditions cover Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, ACC, SEC, and 'any conference other than' those five, which collectively exhausts all possible outcomes. This means the market resolves YES for every realistic scenario, rendering it a tautology rather than a genuine prediction market. Key quote: 'If a team from any conference other than the Big 12, Big Ten, ACC, SEC, and Big East is the 2025-26 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Aligned with sound market design: Polymarket structures the event as 34 separate binary markets, each tied to a specific conference (America East, Atlantic 10, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, etc., plus 'another conference'). Exactly one market will resolve YES based on the actual champion's conference affiliation. Key quote: 'If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the conference whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a national champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to Other.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.