TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This event group comprises eight interconnected prediction markets on the March 21, 2026 MLS match between Nashville SC and Orlando City SC (6:15 PM ET). Markets span spread betting (Nashville -1.5/-2.5, Orlando -1.5/-2.5), total goals (Over/Under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), and both-teams-to-score outcomes. All markets resolve based on the official final score from mlssoccer.com within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with fallback to credible consensus if official stats are unavailable within 2 hours post-match.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use identical spread thresholds and resolution logic for the same underlying event, but Kalshi presents its markets as four separate Yes/No contracts while Polymarket frames them as binary outcomes. Both platforms resolve on the official MLS final score from mlssoccer.com within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, making the resolution source and logic aligned despite structural differences in market presentation.Hero Tip:
Both platforms will resolve identically based on the final score differential and total goals. The divergence is purely structural: Kalshi uses separate Yes/No contracts for each spread/total threshold, while Polymarket uses binary outcome pairs. Traders should expect the same settlement values across both platforms for equivalent bets.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Aligned with Kalshi: Resolves based on official final score from mlssoccer.com within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Offers binary outcome pairs for spreads (Nashville -1.5, Nashville -2.5, Orlando -1.5, Orlando -2.5) and totals (O/U 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), plus Both Teams to Score. Primary source is official MLS statistics; secondary source is credible reporting if stats unavailable within 2 hours post-match. Cancellation resolves 50-50.Kalshi:
Aligned with Polymarket: Resolves based on official final score within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Offers four separate Yes/No contracts covering identical thresholds: Nashville wins by >1.5 goals (Yes), Nashville wins by >2.5 goals (Yes), Orlando wins by >1.5 goals (Yes), Orlando wins by >2.5 goals (Yes). Uses the same underlying event (Orlando at Nashville, March 21, 2026) and same resolution criteria as Polymarket.
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