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$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

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2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals
kalshi
polymarket

MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals

Volume:
$207,471

Chicago White Sox

 - Polymarket

Chicago White Sox - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 28, 2026

Closed: Aug 23, 7:03 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Chicago White Sox

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$26,686
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Miami Marlins

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24,274
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Los Angeles Dodgers

View
100%
29%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$20,497
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
kalshi

80+ wins

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$15,517
N/A
N/A
$6,493
1mo 1w 2d
Yes
polymarket

Houston Astros

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,247
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
kalshi

75+ wins

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,336
N/A
N/A
$1,199
1mo 1w 2d
Yes
polymarket

Tampa Bay Rays

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,823
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Chicago Cubs

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,735
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

San Diego Padres

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,566
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Philadelphia Phillies

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,119
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Boston Red Sox

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$1,699
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Milwaukee Brewers

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,503
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
kalshi

70+ wins

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,487
N/A
N/A
$638
1mo 1w 2d
Yes
polymarket

Cleveland Guardians

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,209
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

St. Louis Cardinals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,202
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Arizona Diamondbacks

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.7¢
N/A
$1,083
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Atlanta Braves

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$967
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
kalshi

65+ wins

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$917
N/A
N/A
$811
1mo 1w 2d
Yes
polymarket

Washington Nationals

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$560
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

New York Yankees

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9.7¢
N/A
$183
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
kalshi

85+ wins

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,351
N/A
N/A
$9,843
1mo 1w 2d
No
polymarket

Texas Rangers

View
0%
38%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,706
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Toronto Blue Jays

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Seattle Mariners

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,229
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
polymarket

Pittsburgh Pirates

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,110
N/A
N/A
N/A
5d 10h 52m
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 37

Description

This group forecasts the regular season win totals for various Major League Baseball teams in the 2026 season. Markets specify a team and a win threshold; the market resolves to 'Yes' if the team exceeds that threshold, and 'No' otherwise.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents a series of binary markets with decreasing win thresholds for a single team, while Polymarket offers over/under markets for multiple teams with specific win totals.Hero tip: Understand that the Kalshi markets are structured such that if Houston wins 95 games, all associated markets (95+, 90+, 85+, etc.) resolve to 'Yes'. Polymarket markets resolve based on exceeding a single threshold.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Kalshi offers a series of binary markets for Houston Astros, resolving 'Yes' if the team achieves or exceeds a specified win total (95+, 90+, 85+, 80+, 75+, 70+, 65+). Key Quote: 'If Houston has 95+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Polymarket offers over/under markets for multiple teams, resolving 'O' if the team wins more than a specified number of games (e.g., Yankees > 86.5). Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to "O 86.5" if the New York Yankees win more than 86.5 games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the final regular season record of the listed team during the 2026 MLB Regular Season. If the listed team records more than the listed number of wins, the corresponding market will resolve to its corresponding “Over”. Otherwise, it will resolve to its corresponding “Under”. If at any point it becomes statistically impossible for the listed team to record more than listed number of wins per the rules of the MLB, the corresponding market will resolve to corresponding "Under". If the MLB Regular Season is cancelled, partially completed, or postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, these markets will resolve to "50-50". The resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/standings/); however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used."

Kalshi

Resolution is based on Houston's total regular season wins in 2026. The team's final win total determines which outcome applies, with each threshold representing a progressively higher performance level. Ties are not counted as wins for purposes of determining the final win total.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the underlying mechanisms. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets are driven by the wisdom of the crowd. This means that prediction market prices can sometimes be more accurate, especially when a significant amount of volume is traded. The collective intelligence reflected in a volume of $207,471 can reveal insights that sportsbooks might miss. However, sportsbooks often offer more diverse betting options than are currently available in this market.

Prices for the same outcomes can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying levels of expertise and information, leading to differing opinions reflected in trading activity. Market design choices, such as fees or trading limits, can also influence price discovery. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform – currently $207,471 overall – isn’t necessarily distributed evenly across all outcomes, creating localized price pressures. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the value of aggregating information from multiple sources.

Numerous events could influence trading activity in this market. Significant player injuries, trades, or managerial changes will likely cause shifts in probabilities as traders reassess team strengths. Preseason performance, including spring training results, can also provide early signals. Unexpected rule changes or shifts in league-wide offensive or pitching trends could also impact expectations. As the 2026 season progresses, actual game results and team performance will be the most significant drivers of price movement, potentially leading to substantial changes in the volume of $207,471.