TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Time left: 16d:22h:35m
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These markets resolve based on which team wins the 2026 Major League Baseball National League Championship Series (NLCS). The NLCS is the final playoff series in the National League, determining which team advances to the World Series. Both platforms cover all 15 NL teams, with Polymarket additionally offering an 'another team' catch-all option for theoretical expansion or edge cases.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 National League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 National League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 National League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 National League Champion is determined through postseason competition. Any team from the National League may win the championship by advancing through the playoff structure and winning the National League Championship Series. The market resolves to Yes for whichever team ultimately claims the National League title and earns the right to compete in the World Series.
Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. The difference between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook odds can sometimes indicate discrepancies in information or biases. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate over time, though short-term fluctuations can vary by 1.5.
Prices for this market can differ between Polymarket and Kalshi due to a variety of factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and fee structures, all of which can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? at 89.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball National League Championship? at 91.0%. Differences in trading volume and the types of traders participating on each platform also contribute to these price discrepancies. These variations present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders attempt to profit from price differences across platforms.
This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the 2026 National League Championship, as determined by Major League Baseball’s official results, will dictate the outcome. The market will settle to 100% for the winning team and 0% for all others. Traders should monitor official MLB announcements and news sources leading up to and following the championship series to stay informed about the resolution process.
Numerous events could significantly impact this market. Major player injuries, trades, or changes in team performance throughout the 2025 and 2026 seasons will likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected managerial changes or shifts in team ownership could also influence trading activity. Positive or negative news regarding a team’s prospects, such as spring training performance or key free agent signings, will also be closely watched by traders. Any developments that alter perceptions of a team’s chances of winning the National League Championship could lead to substantial movements in this market.