TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of a professional MLS soccer match between Minnesota United FC and FC Cincinnati scheduled for February 28, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket track three mutually exclusive outcomes: Minnesota win, Cincinnati win, or draw, all evaluated at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Cancellation edge case handling differs between platforms. Kalshi's three markets collectively cover all outcomes but use ambiguous Yes/No language for cancellation scenarios, while Polymarket explicitly specifies No for Minnesota/Cincinnati win markets and Yes for draw market if canceled.Hero Tip:
For trading purposes, treat both platforms as functionally equivalent for normal match resolution (90 min + stoppage). If cancellation risk is material, note that Polymarket's draw market would resolve Yes if canceled, creating asymmetric payoff. Monitor MLS official communications for postponement/cancellation notices.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Three separate markets each resolve to Yes if their outcome occurs (Minnesota win, Cincinnati win, or Tie). Cancellation handling is implicit and unclear: the phrasing 'If [outcome] wins...then resolves to Yes' does not explicitly address cancellation, creating ambiguity about whether a canceled game with no make-up would trigger any Yes resolution.Polymarket:
Three separate markets with explicit cancellation rules: Minnesota win and Cincinnati win resolve No if canceled with no make-up; draw market resolves Yes if canceled. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes' (draw) and 'resolve No' (win markets). This creates a logical asymmetry where cancellation favors the draw market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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