TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 25 at 10:00PM ET: If the Mavericks win, the market will resolve to "Mavericks". If the Nuggets win, the market will resolve to "Nuggets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's moneyline market (items 1-2) resolves YES for both possible outcomes (Denver wins OR Dallas wins), creating a logical contradiction that makes the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket's markets (items 3-87) use standard, mutually exclusive resolution logic where each outcome resolves to a distinct result.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's moneyline market. It contains a fatal logical error: both 'Denver wins' and 'Dallas wins' resolve to YES, meaning the market will always resolve YES regardless of the actual game result. This violates basic market design. All Polymarket markets are resolvable and use proper binary or categorical logic. Trade only on Polymarket for this event group.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Both possible outcomes (Denver wins and Dallas wins) resolve to YES, creating a logical impossibility. The market states 'If Denver wins the Dallas at Denver professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Dallas wins the Dallas at Denver professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means the market cannot distinguish between outcomes and will always resolve YES.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard market logic: All 87 markets use mutually exclusive resolution outcomes. The moneyline resolves to 'Mavericks' if Mavericks win and 'Nuggets' if Nuggets win (item 3). Spread markets resolve to one team or the other based on point differential (items 6, 10, 70, 82, 86). Player prop markets resolve YES/NO based on whether thresholds are exceeded. Over/Under markets resolve Over or Under based on combined score thresholds (items 4, 8, 64, 80). All outcomes are logically distinct and mutually exclusive.
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