TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NHL game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning scheduled for February 25, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), multiple over/under total goals thresholds (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), and spread betting (-1.5 Lightning).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi moneyline market contains a logical contradiction where both Lightning win and Maple Leafs win are defined to resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket markets are logically sound and mutually exclusive.Hero Tip:
Avoid trading the Kalshi moneyline until the contradiction is corrected. Polymarket's moneyline (Maple Leafs vs. Lightning) and spread (-1.5 Lightning) markets provide reliable, mutually exclusive resolution logic. All Polymarket over/under markets are consistent and resolvable based on final combined goal totals with explicit shootout adjustment.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Moneyline market defines both outcomes as Yes: 'If TB Lightning wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If TOR Maple Leafs wins...resolves to Yes.' This is logically impossible and unresolvable. No clear resolution source or tie-breaker provided.Polymarket:
Moneyline resolves to either 'Maple Leafs' or 'Lightning' (mutually exclusive). Spread (-1.5 Lightning) resolves to 'Lightning' if win by 2+ goals, else 'Maple Leafs'. Over/Under markets (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) resolve based on combined goals with explicit shootout rule: one goal added to winning team's score. Source: NHL.com final scores. Postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no make-up resolves 50-50.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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