TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On March 24, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, the Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Boston Bruins in an NHL regular season game. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi will resolve based on the final official score, including overtime and shootout outcomes. Polymarket offers multiple total goals markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5) alongside a moneyline, while Kalshi covers game outcome only.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events. Kalshi resolves on the winner of the game (either team winning triggers YES), while Polymarket resolves on multiple distinct markets: moneyline (winner), multiple over/under totals (combined goals), and spread. These are incompatible resolution logics for the same event group.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets move together. Kalshi's YES outcome (either team wins) is guaranteed to occur, making it a near-certain payout. Polymarket's markets are independent: you can win the moneyline, lose the spread, and win an over/under simultaneously. Treat each Polymarket market as a separate bet with its own outcome, and do not cross-hedge between platforms expecting correlated results.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi defines a single binary market where YES resolves if either the Maple Leafs OR the Bruins wins the game. The market rules state 'If TOR Maple Leafs wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If BOS Bruins wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction: both outcomes trigger YES, guaranteeing a YES resolution regardless of the game result.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers five separate markets with independent resolution logic: (1) Moneyline (Maple Leafs vs. Bruins) resolves to the winner; (2-5) Four over/under markets (O/U 7.5, 6.5, 5.5, 4.5) each resolve based on combined goals scored; (6) Spread (Bruins -1.5) resolves based on margin of victory. Each market has its own outcome path and is not mutually exclusive with others.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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