TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming Premier League game between Manchester United FC and Leeds United FC, scheduled for April 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for all three possible halftime outcomes (Manchester United win, draw, or Leeds United win), making it logically impossible to distinguish between outcomes. Polymarket offers three separate binary markets that each resolve YES or NO based on specific halftime results, providing mutually exclusive and exhaustive coverage. This is a fundamental structural incompatibility.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market as written—it will resolve YES regardless of the halftime result, rendering it useless for prediction. Trade only the Polymarket markets (Manchester United leading, Draw, or Leeds United leading at halftime), which provide genuine price discovery. If you hold Kalshi positions, seek clarification from Kalshi support before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi's three conditions all resolve to YES, covering every possible halftime outcome without discrimination. The market states 'If Manchester United is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tie is the result... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Leeds United is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes,' making the market resolve YES in all scenarios and thus logically incoherent.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket structures three separate binary markets—each resolving YES for exactly one halftime outcome (Manchester United win, draw, or Leeds United win) and NO for all others. Each market explicitly states 'this market will resolve to Yes' for its specific condition 'Otherwise, this market will resolve to No,' ensuring mutually exclusive resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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