TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the NBA game between the Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks scheduled for March 8, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline, spreads, over/unders, player props (points, rebounds, assists), and first-half variants across Polymarket and Kalshi platforms.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents a binary outcome market (either team winning = Yes) with minimal contingency language, while Polymarket provides granular resolution logic with explicit thresholds, overtime rules, postponement protocols, and cancellation procedures. The divergence is scope-based rather than contradictory.Hero Tip:
For settlement purposes, use Polymarket's detailed resolution framework as the authoritative standard. Polymarket covers 41 distinct markets with consistent edge-case handling (postponement = market remains open, cancellation with no makeup = 50-50 split). Kalshi's binary market lacks explicit guidance on these scenarios. When resolving player props or spreads, always reference official NBA.com box scores and apply Polymarket's threshold logic. Monitor for game postponement or cancellation announcements and apply the 50-50 rule if Kalshi market language does not specify otherwise.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
41 markets with explicit resolution logic. Moneyline: Magic or Bucks determined by final score including overtime. Spreads: Magic (-2.5) resolves Magic only if Magic win by 3+ points, else Bucks; ties resolve to Bucks. Over/Unders: 221+ points = Over for O/U 220.5. Player props: Over/Under thresholds (e.g., Giannis Rebounds O/U 9.5 = Yes if >9.5). First-half variants use halftime score only. Postponement: market remains open. Cancellation with no makeup: 50-50 split. Source: Official NBA.com box score.Kalshi:
Single binary market: If Milwaukee wins the Orlando at Milwaukee game originally scheduled for Mar 8, 2026, resolves Yes. If Orlando wins, resolves Yes. No explicit handling of postponement, cancellation, overtime, or contingencies. Minimal contingency language creates ambiguity on edge cases.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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