TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This market resolves based on the outcome of the Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan Wolverines women's college basketball game scheduled for March 28, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET. The winner of the game determines the market resolution, with the result based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves to YES for both possible game outcomes (Louisville win OR Michigan win), creating a logical contradiction where the market cannot resolve to NO. Polymarket correctly resolves to either 'Louisville Cardinals' or 'Michigan Wolverines' based on the actual game result, with a 50-50 cancellation clause. These are fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market — it is logically broken and will resolve YES regardless of outcome. Trade only on Polymarket, which has coherent binary resolution (Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan Wolverines) and proper cancellation handling.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves to YES if Louisville wins OR if Michigan wins, meaning the market resolves YES in all realistic game outcomes. This creates a tautology with no NO resolution path. Key quote: 'If Louisville wins the Louisville at Michigan women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michigan wins the Louisville at Michigan women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Resolves to 'Louisville Cardinals' if Louisville wins or 'Michigan Wolverines' if Michigan wins, with a 50-50 cancellation clause if the game is canceled with no make-up. Key quote: 'If the Louisville Cardinals win, the market will resolve to Louisville Cardinals. If the Michigan Wolverines win, the market will resolve to Michigan Wolverines. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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