TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Los Angeles Galaxy will face Minnesota United FC on April 4, 2026, in an MLS regular season match. This event group captures three mutually exclusive outcomes: a Galaxy win, a Minnesota United win, or a draw. All markets resolve based on the final result within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with no extra time or penalty shootouts considered.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Minnesota win, Los Angeles win, draw), where exactly one resolves YES. Kalshi defines three separate YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously if the game completes with any outcome, creating a logical contradiction and making the group fundamentally unresolvable as a coherent unit.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these platforms as interchangeable. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES. On Kalshi, all three markets will resolve YES regardless of outcome. If you are hedging across platforms, you will face unexpected basis risk: a Polymarket YES bet on Minnesota will not offset a Kalshi YES bet on Los Angeles for the same game.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary outcomes. Exactly one market resolves YES (Minnesota win, Los Angeles win, or draw), and the other two resolve NO. The resolution source is official MLS statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of match conclusion. Key quote: 'If Minnesota United FC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' — applied identically to all three outcome markets, ensuring only one YES outcome per match.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi structures the event as three independent YES/NO markets, each of which resolves YES if its named outcome occurs. All three markets will resolve YES simultaneously when the match concludes with any outcome (Minnesota win, Los Angeles win, or tie). No resolution source, timing, or cancellation rules are specified. Key quote: 'If Minnesota wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Los Angeles G wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes' — all three conditions are mutually exclusive but all three markets are structured to accept YES, creating logical incoherence.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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