TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the outcome of a CONCACAF Champions Cup soccer match between Los Angeles Galaxy and Deportivo Toluca FC scheduled for April 15, 2026. Markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Galaxy win, Draw, Toluca win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three separate YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously for the same match outcome. This creates a logical contradiction: under Polymarket logic, only one outcome is possible; under Kalshi logic, all three outcomes occur in every match.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Polymarket and Kalshi on this event group. A Galaxy win resolves YES on Polymarket's Galaxy market but also YES on Kalshi's Galaxy market AND Kalshi's Tie market simultaneously—creating irreconcilable payoff structures. Treat each platform's market set as independent.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Galaxy win, Draw, or Toluca win) can occur per match. The three markets are: 'Will Los Angeles Galaxy win', 'Will the game end in a draw', and 'Will Deportivo Toluca FC win'. Only one of these three will resolve YES; the other two resolve NO. Resolution is based on official CONCACAF statistics or credible reporting within 2 hours of match conclusion, covering 90 minutes plus stoppage time only.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi structures the event as three independent YES/NO markets, each asking 'If [outcome] occurs, does this market resolve YES?' This means all three markets can resolve YES simultaneously in a single match. For example, if Galaxy wins, Kalshi's Galaxy market resolves YES, but Kalshi's Tie market also resolves YES (because the Tie outcome did not occur, so the conditional 'If Tie wins... then YES' is false, but the market structure implies all three are independent affirmations). The resolution scope is identical (90 minutes plus stoppage time, CONCACAF Champions Cup, April 15, 2026), but the logical framework treats each outcome as a separate resolvable event rather than mutually exclusive outcomes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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