TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Vivo Keyd Stars Academy and 7REX in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season, initially scheduled for March 30 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Vivo Keyd Stars Academy" if Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win the match against 7REX. This market will resolve to "7REX" if 7REX win the match against Vivo Keyd Stars Academy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve fundamentally different questions. Kalshi resolves on match winner (either team wins = YES), while Polymarket resolves on specific in-game statistics (kills, inhibitors, dragons, baron, quadra/penta kills). These are logically incompatible settlement bases.Hero Tip:
Do not treat these markets as a unified event group. Kalshi's match-winner market (YES if either team wins) cannot be reconciled with Polymarket's game-stat markets (which require specific in-game conditions). Bets on Kalshi depend on match outcome; bets on Polymarket depend on granular gameplay metrics. Hedge accordingly.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Resolves YES if either Vivo Keyd Stars Academy OR 7REX wins the match. The market conflates both possible outcomes into a single YES resolution, making it a tautology (match happens = YES). Key quote: 'If Vivo Keyd Stars Academy wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If 7REX wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This is fundamentally different from Polymarket's approach.Polymarket:
Outlier: Resolves on six independent in-game statistics (match winner, total kills parity, inhibitor destruction, dragon slays, baron slays, and multi-kill achievements). Each market has distinct binary or 50-50 outcomes based on specific gameplay events, not match result. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to "Odd" if the total combined kills by both teams in Game 1 is an odd number' and 'This market will resolve to "Yes" if both teams destroy at least one enemy inhibitor.' These are granular, outcome-independent conditions.
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