TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Top Esports and JD Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for April 11 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Top Esports" if Top Esports win the match against JD Gaming. This market will resolve to "JD Gaming" if JD Gaming win the match against Top Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution scopes. Kalshi resolves based on whether the match occurs at all (binary YES/NO for match completion), while Polymarket provides granular game-by-game and in-match event markets with detailed conditional logic. This creates a critical structural mismatch: Kalshi's two markets cannot logically coexist with Polymarket's 48 markets, as Kalshi's resolution criteria do not align with any single Polymarket market's outcome.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Kalshi and Polymarket markets in this group. Kalshi's markets resolve on match occurrence only; Polymarket's markets resolve on specific game outcomes and in-match events. A match that occurs but is forfeited mid-series will resolve differently across platforms. Treat these as separate, non-correlated betting universes.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi provides only two binary markets that resolve YES if the match occurs (regardless of outcome) and NO if canceled or delayed beyond 7 days. Key quote: 'If JD Gaming wins the LPL 2026... match originally scheduled for Apr 11, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Top Esports wins the LPL 2026... match originally scheduled for Apr 11, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.' Both Kalshi markets resolve YES on match occurrence alone, creating a logical impossibility (both cannot resolve YES simultaneously).Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket provides 48 granular markets covering match winner, individual game winners, in-match events (Baron, inhibitors, dragons, kills, penta/quadra kills, first blood), kill totals with multiple thresholds, and handicap betting. Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to specific game outcomes or events. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Top Esports if Top Esports win Game 1 against JD Gaming' and 'This market will resolve to Yes if both Top Esports and JD Gaming each slay Baron Nashor at least once during Game 1.' Polymarket's scope is outcome-dependent and event-specific, not match-occurrence-dependent.
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