TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group comprises six interconnected League of Legends prediction markets covering the BO1 match between Estral Esports and Vivo Keyd Stars Academy in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season (scheduled April 1, 2026, 5:00 PM ET). Markets span match outcome, in-game objectives (inhibitors, Baron, dragons), and rare mechanical events (quadra/penta kills, kill parity). All markets depend on Game 1 completion and official gol.gg reporting.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines six distinct game-outcome markets with detailed resolution rules for Game 1 events (inhibitors, kills, Baron, dragons, etc.), while Kalshi presents a single binary market that resolves YES if either team wins the match, creating a fundamental scope and logic mismatch. Polymarket's markets are unresolvable if the match does not occur or is delayed beyond 7 days (50-50 resolution), whereas Kalshi's market lacks any such contingency clause.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket's Game 1 markets, your outcome depends entirely on in-game statistics (inhibitors, kills, Baron slays) and requires the match to occur within 7 days; if delayed or canceled, you receive 50-50. Kalshi's market resolves YES if either team simply wins, with no mention of delay penalties or 50-50 fallbacks. Do not assume Kalshi's outcome will mirror Polymarket's Game 1 markets — they measure fundamentally different things.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket operates six separate markets, each measuring distinct in-game events during Game 1 (inhibitor destruction, quadra/penta kills, total kills parity, Baron slays, dragon slays) plus one match-winner market. Each market includes explicit 50-50 resolution if the match is canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, or never played. Core logic: 'This market will resolve to 50-50 if the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date.' Game 1 event markets also resolve 50-50 if Game 1 is never played due to forfeit or if the series result is determined before Game 1 occurs.Kalshi:
Aligned with Polymarket on match-winner outcome only: Kalshi presents a single binary market that resolves YES if Vivo Keyd Stars Academy wins OR if Estral Esports wins (i.e., YES for any winner). The market contains no explicit delay penalty, no 50-50 fallback clause, and no contingency for cancellation or forfeit. Core logic: 'If Vivo Keyd Stars Academy wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Estral Esports wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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