TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 28 at 7:30PM ET: If the Kings win, the market will resolve to "Kings". If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves on a binary YES/NO outcome for either team winning, while Polymarket offers multiple distinct market types (moneyline, spreads, totals, player props, halftime markets) with different resolution criteria. Kalshi's market structure is fundamentally incompatible with Polymarket's granular market design.Hero Tip:
Kalshi bettors are exposed to a single binary outcome (either Atlanta or Sacramento wins = YES), whereas Polymarket offers 126 separate markets with different thresholds, timing windows (full game vs. halftime), and player-specific conditions. Do not assume Kalshi YES correlates 1:1 with any single Polymarket market. A Kings moneyline win on Polymarket does NOT automatically resolve Kalshi YES if the underlying game outcome differs from Kalshi's stated condition.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi offers a single binary market that resolves YES if either Atlanta wins OR Sacramento wins the game scheduled for March 28, 2026. The market states 'If Atlanta wins the Sacramento at Atlanta professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Sacramento wins the Sacramento at Atlanta professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction—both outcomes resolve to YES, making the market unresolvable as a meaningful binary.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard prediction market design: Polymarket offers 126 distinct markets covering moneyline (Kings vs. Hawks), multiple spread thresholds (Hawks -5.5 through -18.5), over/under totals (ranging from 222.5 to 238.5 points), player prop markets (points, rebounds, assists, for multiple players), halftime-specific markets (moneyline, spreads, totals), and first-half spreads. Each market has independent resolution criteria tied to specific thresholds, timing windows, or player statistics. For example, 'Kings vs. Hawks' moneyline resolves to Kings if Kings win, Hawks if Hawks win, and 50-50 if canceled. Spread markets resolve based on point differential (e.g., Hawks -15.5 resolves Hawks if Hawks win by 16+). Totals resolve based on combined points (e.g., O/U 238.5 resolves Over if combined score is 239+). Player props resolve based on individual statistics from the official NBA box score.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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