TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Süper Lig game, scheduled for Thursday, March 19, 2026 between Kayserispor and Fatih Karagümrük SK.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket presents three separate binary markets (Kayserispor win, Draw, Karagümrük win) that are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, while Kalshi presents a single market that resolves YES for all three outcomes (Kayserispor win, Tie, or Karagümrük win), making Kalshi's market logically unresolvable and fundamentally broken.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market. It will resolve YES regardless of the match outcome, making it worthless as a prediction instrument. Trade only on Polymarket, where the three mutually exclusive markets properly capture the three possible outcomes.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket offers three separate binary markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the match outcome. Market 1 resolves YES if Kayserispor wins, Market 2 resolves YES if the match ends in a draw, and Market 3 resolves YES if Karagümrük wins. All three markets reference the same resolution source (TFF official statistics) and the same time scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time). Quote: 'If Kayserispor wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Market 1); 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Market 2); 'If Fatih Karagümrük SK wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Market 3).Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi presents a single market with three resolution conditions, all resolving to YES: 'If Kayserispor wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Karagumruk wins...then the market resolves to Yes.' This creates a logical contradiction where the market resolves YES for every possible outcome, rendering it incapable of functioning as a prediction market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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