TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 27 at 9:00PM ET: If the Jazz win, the market will resolve to "Jazz". If the Nuggets win, the market will resolve to "Nuggets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket resolve on fundamentally different events: Kalshi settles on first-half regulation outcomes (any result resolves YES), while Polymarket settles on full-game outcomes (moneyline, spreads, player props, totals). These are incompatible event scopes with no logical overlap.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge Kalshi and Polymarket markets in this group. A Kalshi YES (first half completes) tells you nothing about Polymarket outcomes (full game results). Treat them as entirely separate betting universes. If you need full-game exposure, use only Polymarket. If you want first-half-only exposure, use only Kalshi.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi resolves on first-half regulation outcomes only. All three markets (Utah win, Tie, Denver win in first half) resolve to YES if any of those outcomes occur at halftime, meaning the market is logically impossible to resolve to NO. The resolution source is the halftime score only, not the final game result. Key quote: 'If Utah is the winner of the first half of regulation time... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result of the first half... then the market resolves to Yes. If Denver is the winner of the first half... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Aligned with standard NBA settlement: Polymarket resolves on full-game outcomes (final score including overtime), using official NBA box scores as the source. Markets include moneyline (Jazz vs. Nuggets), spreads (Nuggets -17.5, -18.5, -19.5), totals (O/U 246.5, 248.5, 249.5), player props (points, rebounds, assists), and first-half markets (1H moneyline, 1H spreads, 1H totals). Key quote: 'The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods' and 'The resolution source will be the official NBA box score as published on NBA.com.'
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