TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Europe World Cup Qualifiers game, scheduled for Thursday, March 26, 2026 between Italy and Northern Ireland.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market structure is logically incoherent: all three outcome options (Italy win, Northern Ireland win, Tie) resolve to YES, making it impossible to distinguish between outcomes. Polymarket uses three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive resolution logic that correctly maps each outcome to a single market. This is a fundamental data integrity failure on Kalshi.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's market for this event — it contains a logical contradiction that makes settlement impossible. Use Polymarket's three separate markets (Italy win, Northern Ireland win, Draw) instead, which have clear, mutually exclusive resolution rules.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi's market structure contains a critical logical flaw. All three possible outcomes (Italy win, Northern Ireland win, Tie) are mapped to YES resolution, with no NO outcome defined. The rules state 'If Italy wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Northern Ireland wins...then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes', leaving no scenario for a NO resolution. This makes the market fundamentally unresolvable.Polymarket:
Aligned with sound resolution logic: Polymarket offers three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. Market 1 resolves YES only if the game ends in a draw, NO otherwise. Market 2 resolves YES only if Northern Ireland wins, NO otherwise. Market 3 resolves YES only if Italy wins, NO otherwise. Each outcome maps to exactly one YES resolution across the three markets, with clear NO conditions. All three markets reference the same primary source (fifa.com) and time scope (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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