TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
57+
- Polymarket
57+ - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
Closed: Feb 22, 7:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for How to Make a Killing (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on February 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by February 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi market group contains 15 overlapping and contradictory resolution conditions with no clear hierarchy or mutual exclusivity, making it logically impossible to determine a single resolution outcome. Polymarket uses a clean threshold-based structure with a single resolution source and fallback timeline.Hero tip: Avoid Kalshi markets in this group entirely—the resolution logic is fundamentally broken and will likely result in disputes. Polymarket's threshold-based markets (57, 58, 59, 60) are resolvable and use a clear fallback rule if data is unavailable by Feb 27, 2026.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: 15 separate conditions all stating 'market resolves to Yes' if Tomatometer score exceeds various thresholds (45, 47, 50, 52, 55, 57, 60, 62, 65, 68, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90). No explicit NO condition, no hierarchy, and no mechanism to handle cases where multiple thresholds are simultaneously true. For example, if the score is 75, conditions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 15 all trigger YES with no disambiguation.
- Polymarket: Four independent binary markets, each asking whether the Tomatometer score will be at least X (57, 58, 59, 60). Each market resolves YES if score >= threshold, NO otherwise. Clear single resolution source (Rotten Tomatoes All Critics Tomatometer), with explicit fallback: if data unavailable at 10:00 AM ET Feb 23, 2026, check until Feb 27, 2026 11:59 PM ET, then resolve NO if still unavailable. Quote: 'This market will resolve to No if no data is available by February 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes “All Critics” Tomatometer score for How to Make a Killing (2026) is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on February 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to “No” if no data is available by February 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Pricing on Kalshi reflects the market's collective assessment of whether the film will achieve specific Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer thresholds by the resolution date. Traders buy and sell contracts at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price representing the implied probability of the outcome occurring. As new information emerges—such as early reviews, festival screenings, or production updates—traders adjust their positions, causing prices to move. The final settlement price is determined by the actual Rotten Tomatoes score once sufficient critic reviews accumulate.
Key catalysts include the film's premiere at major film festivals, which often generate early critical commentary and social media buzz. Official trailer releases and marketing campaigns can shift market sentiment about quality expectations. Once the film releases theatrically, early professional reviews will begin accumulating on Rotten Tomatoes, directly influencing both the eventual score and trader positioning. Industry awards buzz, box office performance, and word-of-mouth reception may also indirectly affect critic sentiment. Any production news, cast changes, or director statements could alter market expectations before reviews begin.