TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire FC MLS match scheduled for February 21, 2026 at 8:30 PM ET. Markets span moneyline outcomes (Kalshi), goal totals at multiple thresholds (Over/Under 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5), both teams to score, and spread betting at -1.5 and -2.5 goal differentials (Polymarket). All markets resolve based on the final score within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket align on the same resolution window (90 minutes plus stoppage time), the same official source (mlssoccer.com for Polymarket; implicit MLS official record for Kalshi), and identical handling of postponements (remain open) and cancellations (50-50 split if no makeup).
Primary resolution logic:
Official MLS Soccer (mlssoccer.com) final score published after match completionCore resolution logic:
- All markets resolve on the final score within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time only; extra time and penalties are excluded
- Moneyline (Kalshi): Any outcome (Houston win, Chicago win, or tie) resolves to Yes; this is a tautological market covering all possibilities
- Over/Under markets (Polymarket): Resolve to Over if combined goals meet or exceed the threshold (1.5=2+, 2.5=3+, 3.5=4+, 4.5=5+); otherwise Under
- Both Teams to Score (Polymarket): Resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal each; No if either team scores zero
- Spread markets (Polymarket): Houston -1.5 resolves Houston if they win by 2+; Houston -2.5 resolves Houston if they win by 3+; Chicago spreads mirror with opposite logic
- Postponement: All markets remain open until the game is completed
- Cancellation with no makeup: All markets resolve 50-50
- Incomplete match: Resolution follows the official final score published on mlssoccer.com at the time of stoppage
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Kalshi Moneyline Tautology: The Kalshi moneyline market covers all three possible outcomes (Houston win, Chicago win, tie) and resolves to Yes for any of them. This is logically complete and creates no ambiguity.
- Game Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open and do not resolve until the game is played and completed.
- Game Cancellation Without Makeup: If the game is canceled entirely with no makeup date scheduled, all markets resolve 50-50 (split evenly between Yes and No outcomes).
- Incomplete Match Resolution: If the game begins but is not completed (e.g., abandoned due to weather or safety), resolution uses the official final score published on mlssoccer.com at the moment of stoppage, not a projected or estimated final score.
- Stoppage Time Inclusion: All markets explicitly include stoppage time as part of the 90-minute window; goals scored during added time count toward market resolution.
Timing:
Resolution occurs immediately after the match concludes and the official final score is published on mlssoccer.com, typically within 15-30 minutes of the final whistle. Postponed matches remain unresolved until rescheduled and completed. Canceled matches with no makeup resolve 50-50 within 24 hours of official cancellation announcement.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.