TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Houston Dynamo vs. Chicago Fire FC MLS match scheduled for February 21, 2026. Markets span multiple outcome types: Kalshi offers goal-differential markets (>1.5 and >2.5 goal margins for both teams), while Polymarket offers binary win/loss/draw markets. All markets resolve based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Market scope divergence: Kalshi markets measure goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals), while Polymarket markets measure binary match outcomes (Win/Loss/Draw). These are complementary rather than contradictory, but they resolve on different criteria.Hero Tip:
Kalshi and Polymarket are measuring different aspects of the same match. A Kalshi >1.5 goal margin market and a Polymarket Win market will both resolve YES for a 2-0 victory, but a 1-0 victory resolves YES only on Polymarket. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if margin probabilities diverge from win probabilities. Verify which market type matches your prediction before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Four goal-differential markets: Houston >2.5 goals, Houston >1.5 goals, Chicago >1.5 goals, Chicago >2.5 goals. Each resolves YES if the specified team wins by the specified margin or greater. Key Quote: 'If Houston wins by more than 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Three mutually exclusive binary outcome markets: Houston Win (YES/NO), Chicago Win (YES/NO), Draw (YES/NO). Each resolves based on match result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Key Quote: 'If Houston Dynamo wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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