TOTAL VOLUME:
$62.1b
24H VOL:
$235,216,568
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,147,874
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,359,678,827
584,153
Markets across
14,438
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,188
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 10? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Jun 10, 8:00 AM EST
Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 10 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on climate models and historical data to project temperatures, prediction markets incorporate trader expectations, recent weather patterns, and emerging atmospheric conditions. Comparing the market's implied probability to official forecasts from Hong Kong's Observatory or regional meteorological services can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios. This comparison highlights how markets may weight certain catalysts differently than conventional forecasters.
On Polymarket, the highest temperature outcome for Hong Kong on June 10 is priced as a binary contract reflecting the probability of specific temperature thresholds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 1 (or 0–100 cents), with the price representing the market's consensus probability. As new information emerges—such as seasonal forecasts, atmospheric pressure changes, or historical temperature patterns for early June—the price adjusts. The current market price directly translates to an implied odds percentage, making it easy to see what traders collectively believe about the likelihood of each temperature outcome.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, after the highest temperature for June 10 in Hong Kong has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official temperature data from a designated source, ensuring an objective and verifiable outcome. Once the actual highest temperature is confirmed, the market settles based on which outcome bracket or threshold it falls into. Traders who correctly predicted the temperature range receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated and transparent, eliminating ambiguity about the final result.
Several factors could shift market odds for Hong Kong's June 10 temperature. Seasonal weather pattern updates, tropical cyclone forecasts, and atmospheric pressure systems developing over Southeast Asia will influence trader expectations. Historical temperature data for early June and any anomalies in regional climate patterns may trigger repricing. Long-range weather models released closer to the date will carry significant weight. Additionally, broader climate events—such as shifts in monsoon intensity or ocean temperature anomalies—could move the market. Real-time meteorological alerts and official forecasts from Hong Kong's Observatory will be key catalysts driving trading activity and price adjustments.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.