TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026 between Haiti and Iceland.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three separate binary markets (Haiti wins, Tie, Iceland wins) that each resolve YES independently, while Polymarket offers three distinct markets with mutually exclusive outcomes (Haiti wins, Draw, Iceland wins). The resolution logic differs fundamentally: Kalshi's structure allows multiple markets to resolve YES simultaneously if the event outcome matches multiple conditions, whereas Polymarket's structure ensures only one outcome resolves YES.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, understand that the three markets are independent — a draw resolves YES on the Tie market only. On Polymarket, the three markets are mutually exclusive — only one can resolve YES. Do not assume Kalshi's markets behave like a traditional three-way bet; they are separate binary events. Verify your platform's payout structure before placing trades.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers three independent binary markets, each resolving YES if its specific outcome occurs. All three markets reference the same event (Haiti vs Iceland, March 31, 2026, 90 minutes plus stoppage time) and the same resolution source (official match statistics), but each market is a standalone YES/NO proposition. For example, if the match ends in a draw, only the Tie market resolves YES; the Haiti and Iceland markets resolve NO. The structure allows traders to bet on each outcome independently without mutual exclusivity enforced at the platform level.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive markets (Haiti wins, Draw, Iceland wins) where exactly one resolves YES and the other two resolve NO, mirroring a traditional three-way bet structure. All three markets reference the same event (March 31, 2026, 90 minutes plus stoppage time) and the same primary resolution source (official FIFA statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours). The Draw market includes a special cancellation clause: if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up, the Draw market resolves YES.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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