TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for April 12 at 8:30PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Rockets win, the market will resolve to "Rockets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's markets resolve YES for ANY outcome (Houston wins OR Memphis wins), making them logically incoherent and fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket correctly resolves based on the actual game outcome (Grizzlies win, Rockets win, or specific spread/total thresholds). This is a data integrity failure on Kalshi's part.Hero Tip:
Do NOT trade Kalshi's moneyline market — it will resolve YES regardless of outcome, violating basic market logic. All Polymarket markets (moneyline, spreads, totals, first-half variants) are resolvable and coherent. Trade only on Polymarket for this event.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Both markets state 'If Houston wins... then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Memphis wins... then the market resolves to Yes', creating a logical contradiction where every possible outcome resolves YES. This is a critical data integrity failure: 'If Houston wins the Memphis at Houston professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Memphis wins the Memphis at Houston professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Aligned with standard NBA settlement logic: Moneyline resolves to 'Grizzlies' or 'Rockets' based on actual winner; spread markets resolve based on point differential thresholds (e.g., 'Rockets' if Rockets win by 18+ points, otherwise 'Grizzlies'); over/under markets resolve based on combined total points (e.g., 'Over' if combined score is 228+, 'Under' if less). All markets include postponement and cancellation provisions. Example: 'This market will resolve to Rockets if the Rockets win the game by 18 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Grizzlies.'
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