TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NBA game, scheduled for March 23 at 7:30PM ET: If the Grizzlies win, the market will resolve to "Grizzlies". If the Hawks win, the market will resolve to "Hawks". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi resolves to YES for either team winning (both outcomes resolve YES), creating a logical contradiction. Polymarket correctly resolves to a single winner outcome. This makes Kalshi's market mathematically unresolvable and creates irreconcilable settlement conflicts.Hero Tip:
DO NOT trade on Kalshi's moneyline market — it contains a critical logical flaw where both possible outcomes (Memphis wins OR Atlanta wins) resolve to YES, violating basic market design. Trade only on Polymarket's winner market, which correctly resolves to either 'Grizzlies' or 'Hawks' based on final score. For spread and totals markets, both platforms align on standard resolution logic, but verify Kalshi's moneyline is corrected before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Contains a critical logical contradiction in the moneyline market. The resolution rules state 'If Memphis wins the Memphis at Atlanta professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Atlanta wins the Memphis at Atlanta professional basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 23, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This means both possible outcomes resolve to YES, making the market unresolvable. All other Kalshi markets (spreads, totals) use standard threshold-based logic aligned with Polymarket.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard market design: Resolves to 'Grizzlies' if Memphis wins or 'Hawks' if Atlanta wins, with clear single-outcome resolution. Spread markets resolve based on point differential thresholds (e.g., 'Hawks' if Hawks win by 13+ points for the -12.5 spread). Totals markets resolve based on combined score thresholds. All resolution logic is internally consistent and mathematically sound.
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