TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Friday, March 27, 2026 between Greece and Paraguay.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution scopes. Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Paraguay win, Draw, Greece win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi offers three non-mutually-exclusive markets that all resolve YES simultaneously if their respective outcomes occur, creating logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Polymarket and Kalshi on this event. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES; on Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES if the match completes normally. A Paraguay win resolves YES on Polymarket's Paraguay market and NO on the others, but YES on all three Kalshi markets. This is a structural trap — your profit/loss profile is inverted between platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one outcome (Paraguay win, Draw, or Greece win) resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. Each market explicitly states 'Otherwise, this market will resolve to No,' enforcing mutual exclusivity. The Draw market uniquely resolves YES if the game is canceled with no make-up.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi structures three independent non-mutually-exclusive markets, each resolving YES if its named outcome occurs. All three markets state 'then the market resolves to Yes' without exclusivity logic. If Paraguay wins, all three Kalshi markets (Paraguay, Tie, Greece) simultaneously resolve YES, contradicting standard match logic.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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