TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
On April 4 at 10:00 PM ET, the Vegas Golden Knights face the Edmonton Oilers in an NHL matchup. Markets will resolve based on the final score including overtime and shootouts (with one goal added to the winning team's total in shootout scenarios). The event group includes moneyline (winner) and four over/under total goals markets (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 thresholds).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use different threshold interpretations for over/under goals markets. Kalshi frames thresholds as 'over X goals' (meaning > X), while Polymarket frames identical thresholds as 'combine to score X or more goals' (meaning >= X), creating a one-goal resolution difference at each threshold level.Hero Tip:
If you bet on Kalshi's 'over 4.5' market, you need 5+ goals to win. On Polymarket's 'O/U 4.5', you also need 5+ goals to win — they align here. However, examine each threshold carefully: Kalshi's 'over 2.5' requires 3+ goals, while Polymarket's equivalent would require 3+ goals. The platforms converge on practical outcomes, but their wording creates potential confusion. Verify the exact threshold and payout condition before placing large positions.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Aligned with Polymarket on practical goal thresholds: Kalshi offers eight over/under markets (over 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 8.5, 9.5 goals), each resolving YES if the combined total exceeds the stated threshold. For example, 'over 4.5' resolves YES if 5 or more goals are scored. Kalshi also includes a moneyline market (Golden Knights vs. Oilers winner) and does not explicitly list spread markets.Polymarket:
Aligned with Kalshi on practical goal thresholds: Polymarket offers four over/under markets (O/U 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5), each resolving to 'Over' if the combined total meets or exceeds the stated threshold plus one. For example, 'O/U 4.5' resolves to 'Over' if 5 or more goals are scored. Polymarket also includes a moneyline market (Golden Knights vs. Oilers winner) and two spread markets (Oilers -1.5 and Golden Knights -1.5), requiring a 2+ goal margin for resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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