TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Argentina Primera Division soccer match between Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata and CA Rosario Central scheduled for February 25, 2026. Markets across Polymarket and Kalshi assess the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi handle game cancellation differently. Polymarket's draw market resolves YES on cancellation while win markets resolve NO; Kalshi's omnibus structure does not explicitly address cancellation, creating ambiguity in how a canceled game maps to the three mutually exclusive outcomes.Hero Tip:
Monitor official AFA (Asociacion del Futbol Argentino) sources for any postponement or cancellation announcements. If cancellation occurs, Polymarket traders holding draw positions will profit while win position holders will lose; Kalshi's resolution path is unclear and should be clarified with the platform before settlement. Consider the postponement clause: both platforms keep markets open if the game is rescheduled, so only a permanent cancellation triggers the divergence.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets with asymmetric cancellation logic. Rosario win and Gimnasia win markets resolve NO if canceled with no make-up. Draw market resolves YES if canceled with no make-up. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve NO' (win markets) vs 'this market will resolve YES' (draw market).Kalshi:
Single omnibus market with three mutually exclusive YES outcomes (tie, Gimnasia win, Rosario win). No explicit cancellation clause provided. The structure implies only one outcome can resolve YES, but cancellation handling is not documented.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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