TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Friday, March 20, 2026 between Genoa CFC and Udinese Calcio.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally different resolution scopes. Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (Genoa win, Draw, Udinese win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three independent YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously if the match completes normally.Hero Tip:
This is a critical structural divergence. On Polymarket, betting all three outcomes guarantees exactly one winner. On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES for any match result (win, draw, or loss), making them redundant and unsuitable for hedging. Do not assume Kalshi markets behave like traditional binary sports markets.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket creates three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one resolves YES and the other two resolve NO. Each market has independent resolution criteria: 'If Genoa CFC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.' This structure guarantees that across the three markets, only one outcome is possible.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi defines three independent YES/NO markets that all resolve YES whenever the match completes with any result (Genoa win, Draw, or Udinese win). The resolution logic states 'If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Genoa wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Udinese wins... then the market resolves to Yes.' This means all three markets resolve YES simultaneously for any normal match outcome, creating logical redundancy rather than mutual exclusivity.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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