TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for March 19 at 10:30PM ET: If the Flyers win, the market will resolve to "Flyers". If the Kings win, the market will resolve to "Kings". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different market structures and resolution scopes for the same underlying game. Kalshi offers spread-based markets (goal-margin outcomes), while Polymarket offers moneyline and total-goals markets (winner and combined scoring). The platforms do not directly contradict each other, but they settle on different aspects of the same event.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting on goal margins (e.g., Kings win by 2+); if you trade on Polymarket, you are betting on the winner or total goals scored. These are complementary but distinct markets. A Kings win by exactly 1 goal resolves differently across platforms: Kalshi's spread market resolves to Flyers (Kings did not cover -1.5), while Polymarket's moneyline resolves to Kings. Ensure your strategy accounts for which outcome you actually want to bet on.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi settles exclusively on goal-margin thresholds (spread outcomes). Markets resolve YES if either team wins by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, or NO otherwise. The platform does not offer a direct moneyline or total-goals market. Key quote: 'If Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'Spread: Kings (-1.5)... This market will resolve to Kings if the Kings win the game by 2 or more goals.'Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket settles on moneyline (winner), total goals (combined scoring), and spread outcomes. Markets resolve to Flyers or Kings based on the winner, and Over/Under based on combined goals (4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 thresholds). Key quote: 'If the Flyers win, the market will resolve to Flyers. If the Kings win, the market will resolve to Kings' and 'This market will resolve to Over if the Flyers and Kings combine to score 5 or more goals.'
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