TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$244,265,276
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,349,697,137
578,254
Markets across
14,382
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,099
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats men's college basketball game scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. Markets span moneyline (winner), spread betting at multiple thresholds, and over/under total points, with resolution based on final score including overtime.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi employs a granular binary (Yes/No) threshold-based spread model with 22 distinct markets, while Polymarket uses discrete binary spread markets at -6.5 and -5.5 for Florida. This creates different settlement triggers for identical game outcomes, particularly in the 1.5 to 8.5 point margin range.Hero Tip:
Treat Kalshi and Polymarket spread markets as separate instruments. A Florida win by 6 points triggers Yes on Kalshi's >5.5 market but resolves to Kentucky Wildcats on Polymarket's -6.5 spread. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if odds diverge; focus on the moneyline (winner) for unified resolution across both platforms.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
22 binary markets covering Kentucky wins by >1.5 to >22.5 points and Florida wins by >1.5 to >22.5 points. Each threshold is a separate Yes/No market. Example: 'If Kentucky wins by more than 16.5 points in the Florida at Kentucky men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Mar 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Discrete spread markets at Florida -6.5 (resolves Florida if win by 7+, else Kentucky) and Florida -5.5 (resolves Florida if win by 6+, else Kentucky). Also moneyline (Florida Gators vs. Kentucky Wildcats winner) and over/under totals at 160.5, 161.5, 162.5. Example: 'This market will resolve to Florida Gators if the Florida Gators win the game by 7 or more points. Otherwise, this market will resolve to Kentucky Wildcats.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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