TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Fenerbahce vs. Real Madrid
polymarket
kalshi

Fenerbahce vs. Real Madrid

Volume:
$441,997

Real Madrid

 - Kalshi

Real Madrid - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Closed: Apr 9, 4:45 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Real Madrid

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$146,260
N/A
N/A
$92,562
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Fenerbahce Istanbul

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$177,306
N/A
N/A
$130,098
Settled
No
polymarket

Fenerbahce vs. Real Madrid

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$118,431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This market resolves based on the outcome of the Euroleague basketball game between Fenerbahce and Real Madrid, scheduled for April 9 at 1:45 PM ET. The winner of the game determines the market resolution, with provisions for postponement (market remains open) or cancellation without makeup (50-50 split).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket resolves based on a single winner (Fenerbahce or Real Madrid), while Kalshi's resolution logic is contradictory and unresolvable—it states the market resolves to Yes if EITHER team wins, making it impossible to distinguish between a Yes and No outcome.Hero tip: Avoid betting on Kalshi's market as written. The resolution criteria are logically broken: both possible outcomes (Fenerbahce wins OR Real Madrid wins) trigger a Yes resolution, leaving no scenario for a No resolution. Polymarket's binary structure (Fenerbahce vs. Real Madrid) is the only coherent market in this group.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses a standard binary resolution where the market resolves to either 'Fenerbahce' or 'Real Madrid' based on the game outcome, with edge cases for postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Key quote: 'If the Fenerbahce win, the market will resolve to Fenerbahce. If the Real Madrid win, the market will resolve to Real Madrid.'
  • Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi's resolution logic contains a critical flaw—it states the market resolves to Yes if Fenerbahce wins AND also resolves to Yes if Real Madrid wins, creating a logical contradiction with no valid No resolution path. Key quote: 'If Fenerbahce Istanbul wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Real Madrid wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.