TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Champions League match between FC Bayern München and Atalanta BC scheduled for March 18, 2026. Markets track three mutually exclusive outcomes: a Bayern win, an Atalanta win, or a draw. All resolution criteria are based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi have fundamentally incompatible resolution structures. Polymarket offers three mutually exclusive binary markets (Bayern win, Draw, Atalanta win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi offers three separate markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously for the same match outcome, creating logical contradiction.Hero Tip:
Do not cross-hedge between Polymarket and Kalshi on this event. On Polymarket, exactly one of the three markets will resolve YES. On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES regardless of outcome, making Kalshi's markets non-discriminative and unsuitable for directional betting. Treat Kalshi's structure as a guaranteed payout rather than a predictive market.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures this as three mutually exclusive binary markets where the match outcome determines exactly one YES resolution. Bayern win market resolves YES only if Bayern wins; Draw market resolves YES only if match ends in a draw; Atalanta win market resolves YES only if Atalanta wins. All three cannot resolve YES simultaneously. Key quote: 'If FC Bayern München wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Bayern market); 'If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Draw market); 'If Atalanta BC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No' (Atalanta market).Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi structures this as three independent markets that all resolve YES for any match outcome. Market 1 resolves YES if Bayern wins. Market 2 resolves YES if the match ties. Market 3 resolves YES if Atalanta wins. Since the match must result in exactly one of these three outcomes, all three Kalshi markets will always resolve YES, regardless of the actual result. Key quote: 'If Bayern Munich wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Atalanta wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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