TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.8b
24H VOL:
$257,828,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,664,501
579,454
Markets across
14,299
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,106
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between FC Barcelona and Newcastle United FC, scheduled for March 18, 2026 at 1:45 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's market resolves YES for all three possible halftime outcomes (Barcelona win, Newcastle win, or draw), making it logically impossible to distinguish between outcomes. Polymarket offers three separate binary markets that each resolve YES or NO based on specific halftime results, providing mutually exclusive and exhaustive coverage. This fundamental structural difference makes Kalshi's market unresolvable as a meaningful prediction instrument.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market — it will resolve YES regardless of the actual halftime result, rendering it useless for prediction or hedging. Trade Polymarket's three separate markets instead (Barcelona leading, Draw, Newcastle leading), which provide clear, mutually exclusive outcomes. If you hold Kalshi YES, you have no actual exposure to the match outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Market resolves YES if Newcastle wins the first half, OR if Barcelona wins the first half, OR if there is a draw — meaning the market resolves YES for every possible halftime outcome. This creates a logical contradiction: 'If Newcastle is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes. If Barcelona is the winner... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie is the result... then the market resolves to Yes.' There is no scenario in which this market resolves NO.Polymarket:
Aligned with sound prediction market design: Offers three separate binary markets (Barcelona leading at halftime, Draw at halftime, Newcastle leading at halftime), each resolving YES or NO based on the specific halftime outcome. Each market has mutually exclusive resolution criteria tied to official match statistics within the first 45 minutes plus stoppage time. 'If FC Barcelona wins within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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