TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, March 31, 2026 between England and Japan.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi presents three separate markets that each resolve YES for any single outcome (Tie, England win, or Japan win), creating logical redundancy and ambiguity about which market settles for a given result. Polymarket offers three distinct binary markets (England win, Draw, Japan win) with mutually exclusive resolution logic, providing clear settlement for each outcome.Hero Tip:
If trading on Kalshi, clarify with the platform which of the three markets applies to your predicted outcome—the structure suggests only one should resolve YES per match result, but the wording is ambiguous. On Polymarket, the three markets are cleanly separated: bet YES on 'England win' if you expect England to win, YES on 'Draw' if you expect a tie, or YES on 'Japan win' if you expect Japan to win. Polymarket's structure is more transparent for settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi lists three separate markets, each stating 'resolves to Yes' for a different outcome (Tie, England win, or Japan win). The structure is ambiguous—it is unclear whether all three markets resolve YES simultaneously for their respective outcomes, or whether only one market per match result should resolve YES. The rules state 'If [outcome], then the market resolves to Yes' for each of the three outcomes, but do not clarify mutual exclusivity or which market corresponds to which result.Polymarket:
Aligned with standard sports settlement logic: Polymarket offers three distinct binary markets with mutually exclusive resolution. Market 1 resolves YES if England wins, NO otherwise. Market 2 resolves YES if the match ends in a draw, NO otherwise. Market 3 resolves YES if Japan wins, NO otherwise. Exactly one market will resolve YES and two will resolve NO. All three markets reference 'the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time' and use FIFA as the primary resolution source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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