TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
El Mokawloon El Arab SC and Ismaily SC are scheduled to compete on April 9, 2026, in a Egyptian football match. The outcome will be determined by the final score within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with three possible results: a win for El Mokawloon, a win for Ismaily, or a draw.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use fundamentally incompatible resolution logic for the draw market. Polymarket's draw market resolves YES if canceled with no make-up game, while Kalshi's draw market (labeled as 'Tie') resolves YES only if the match is actually played and ends in a tie. This creates a logical contradiction: the same cancellation event produces opposite outcomes across platforms.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the draw market across both platforms simultaneously. If you believe the match will be canceled, Polymarket's draw market resolves YES but Kalshi's does not. If you believe the match will be played and end in a tie, both resolve YES, but the cancellation scenario creates irreconcilable divergence. Treat these as separate, non-hedgeable markets.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier on draw/cancellation logic: Polymarket's draw market resolves YES if the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, but resolves NO if El Mokawloon or Ismaily wins. This creates a three-outcome structure where cancellation = draw resolution. Quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to Yes.'Kalshi:
Outlier on draw/cancellation logic: Kalshi's 'Tie' market resolves YES only if the match is actually played and ends in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation is not addressed, implying the market remains unresolved or defaults to NO. Quote: 'If Tie wins the Al Mokawloon vs Ismaily professional Egyptian Premier League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 9, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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