TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event is for the upcoming Egypt Egyptian Premier League game, scheduled for Saturday, April 11, 2026 between El Ahly SC and Smouha SC.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket defines three mutually exclusive binary markets (El Ahly win, Draw, Smouha win) where exactly one resolves YES, while Kalshi defines three independent YES/NO markets that can all resolve YES simultaneously if the match completes normally. This creates a logical contradiction: under Polymarket logic, only one outcome is possible; under Kalshi logic, all three outcomes trigger YES in their respective markets.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Polymarket and Kalshi markets are interchangeable. On Polymarket, betting YES on El Ahly win means betting NO on Draw and Smouha win (mutually exclusive). On Kalshi, all three markets resolve YES if the match occurs and completes—they are not mutually exclusive. Arbitrage or hedging strategies that work on one platform will fail on the other.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Outlier: Polymarket structures the event as three mutually exclusive binary markets where exactly one resolves YES based on the final 90-minute result. The Draw market uniquely resolves YES if the game is canceled with no make-up, creating an asymmetric cancellation rule. Key quote: 'If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "Yes"' (Draw only); El Ahly and Smouha markets resolve NO on cancellation.Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi defines three independent outcome-based markets (Al Ahly wins, Smouha wins, Tie) that each resolve YES if their respective outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. All three markets can resolve YES simultaneously if the match completes normally. Key quote: 'If Al Ahly (EGY) wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Smouha wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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