TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Virtus.pro and Nigma Galaxy in the PREMIER SERIES Group B, initially scheduled for April 6 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Virtus.pro" if Virtus.pro win the match against Nigma Galaxy. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against Virtus.pro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally incompatible resolution frameworks. Kalshi's markets (items 1–2) resolve on match outcome only, while Polymarket's markets (items 3–167) resolve on granular in-game statistics (kills, first blood, rampages, day/night cycle, barracks, Roshan). Kalshi has no markets for game-level events; Polymarket has no match-winner market aligned with Kalshi's binary outcome structure. Additionally, Kalshi's two markets are logically contradictory: both resolve YES if Virtus.pro wins AND if Nigma Galaxy wins, making simultaneous YES resolution impossible.Hero Tip:
Do not assume Kalshi and Polymarket markets are correlated. Kalshi's match-outcome markets cannot be hedged or arbitraged against Polymarket's kill-count or first-blood markets because they measure entirely different settlement values. If you trade Kalshi's VP-wins market, you cannot use Polymarket's Game 1 kills market to validate your position. Kalshi's internal contradiction (both markets resolving YES for opposite outcomes) suggests a critical drafting error; seek clarification from Kalshi before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Kalshi provides only two markets (items 1–2), both purporting to resolve YES if either Virtus.pro OR Nigma Galaxy wins the match. This creates a logical impossibility—both markets cannot simultaneously resolve YES. The resolution rule states 'If Virtus.pro wins...then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Nigma Galaxy wins...then the market resolves to Yes,' meaning exactly one team will trigger a YES resolution, yet both markets are identically worded. No game-level or in-game statistic markets are offered. Primary source is unspecified; resolution criteria are match outcome only.Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 165 markets (items 3–167) covering match outcome (items 42–51), series length (item 16), handicaps (items 30, 100), and granular in-game statistics including total kills by game (items 3–15, 18–21, 34–41, 48–51, 78–167), first blood by game (items 22, 28, 10), day/night cycle (items 26, 52, 70), rampages and ultra kills (items 24, 56, 62, 64, 68, 76), barracks destruction (items 58, 66, 74), and Roshan kills (items 54, 60, 72). All markets explicitly cite https://www.dotabuff.com as the primary resolution source, with a 2-hour fallback to credible reporting. Each market defines kill resolution precisely: 'a kill is counted when an enemy hero dies and the game awards a hero kill event to the opposing team's score.' Polymarket's match-winner market (item 42) resolves YES/NO based on series victory, not individual game outcomes.
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