TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-3 Dota 2 match between Tundra Esports and Natus Vincere scheduled for March 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET in the PGL Wallachia Group Stage. Markets span match winner, game-by-game outcomes, handicaps, and granular in-game statistics (kills, Roshan kills, barracks destruction, rampages, ultra kills, day/night cycle timing, and first blood).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market resolves on PGL Wallachia 2026 tournament winner (either team = Yes), while Polymarket resolves on the specific BO3 match outcome between these two teams. These are fundamentally different events: Kalshi requires the team to win the entire tournament; Polymarket requires only a win in this single match. Additionally, Polymarket explicitly applies 50-50 resolution for forfeits and walkovers, whereas Kalshi's handling of these scenarios is undefined.Hero Tip:
Kalshi and Polymarket are NOT equivalent markets. Kalshi is a tournament-outcome bet; Polymarket is a match-outcome bet. A team can win the Polymarket match but lose the Kalshi tournament (if eliminated later). Conversely, a team can lose the Polymarket match but still win Kalshi (if they advance and win the tournament). Use Polymarket for direct match trading and Kalshi only if you have conviction on the full tournament outcome.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Tournament-level resolution. Market resolves to Yes if Natus Vincere wins PGL Wallachia 2026 OR if Tundra Esports wins PGL Wallachia 2026. This is a binary outcome on the tournament champion, not the specific March 7 match. Forfeit/walkover handling is not explicitly stated.Polymarket:
Match-level resolution. Market resolves to 'Tundra Esports' if Tundra wins the BO3, or 'Natus Vincere' if Natus Vincere wins the BO3. Forfeits, walkovers, and cancellations resolve to 50-50. Match must be completed or explicitly won via opponent forfeit/disqualification for non-50-50 resolution.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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