TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a best-of-three (BO3) Dota 2 match between MOUZ and Heroic in the PREMIER SERIES 2026 Playoffs, originally scheduled for April 8, 2026 at 1:00 PM EDT. The markets resolve to Yes if either team wins the match, creating a tautological condition where resolution is guaranteed regardless of outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket resolve all markets based on official information from DotaBuff, with identical logic for match outcomes, individual game winners, series length, handicaps, and in-game events (kills, Roshan, barracks, Ultra Kills, Rampages, First Blood, day/night cycle timing).
Primary resolution logic:
Official information from https://www.dotabuff.com, with fallback to consensus of credible reporting and video evidence if DotaBuff has not published final results within 2 hours after event conclusion.Core resolution logic:
- Match winner (Kalshi markets 1–2): Resolves YES if either MOUZ or Heroic wins the match; both markets resolve YES if the match is played to completion.
- Series winner (Polymarket main market): Resolves to MOUZ if MOUZ wins the series, or Heroic if Heroic wins the series.
- Individual game winners (Game 1, Game 2, Game 3): Resolves to the team that wins that specific game.
- Games Total O/U 2.5: Resolves OVER if 3+ games are played; UNDER if fewer than 3 games are played.
- Game Handicap markets: MOUZ (-1.5) resolves to MOUZ if MOUZ wins 2+ more games than Heroic; otherwise resolves to Heroic. HEROIC (-1.5) resolves to Heroic if Heroic wins 2+ more games than MOUZ; otherwise resolves to MOUZ.
- In-game events (Roshan, barracks, Ultra Kill, Rampage, First Blood): Resolve based on whether the specified condition occurs during the named game.
- Day/night cycle timing: Resolves YES if game-ending action occurs during daytime phase (0:00–5:00, 10:00–15:00, 20:00–25:00, etc.); NO if during nighttime phase.
- Total kills O/U markets: Resolve OVER if total kills meet or exceed the threshold (e.g., 51+ for O/U 50.5); UNDER otherwise.
- Cancellation, no-play, or delay beyond 7 days without winner: All markets resolve 50-50.
- Forfeit, disqualification, or walkover before match begins: Series and game-specific markets resolve 50-50; clinching-game forfeits count as completed matches.
- Incomplete games: Game-specific markets resolve 50-50 unless the game is completed (including via forfeit after play begins).
- Remakes: Resolution is based on the remade game only.
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Clinching-game forfeit: If the series-clinching game is forfeited by one team, that match counts as completed and the series resolves to the team that clinched via forfeit.
- Incomplete game with forfeit: If a game begins but is not completed and one team wins via opponent forfeit/disqualification/walkover, series and handicap markets resolve 50-50; individual game markets resolve based on the team that won the forfeit.
- Game not played due to series clinch: If a game (e.g., Game 3) is not played because the series result is already determined, all markets specific to that game resolve 50-50.
- First Blood in incomplete game: If a game begins but is not completed, First Blood market resolves to the team that secured first blood prior to stoppage; if no first blood occurred, resolves 50-50.
- Roshan/barracks in incomplete game: If a game begins but is not completed and ends via forfeit, Roshan and barracks markets resolve based on whether both teams met the condition prior to stoppage; if not met, resolves NO.
Timing:
Resolution occurs upon official DotaBuff publication or, if unavailable within 2 hours after event conclusion, upon consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. Match scheduled for April 8, 2026 at 1:00 PM EDT (Polymarket also references 2:30 PM ET for some kill markets, but resolution timing is identical across both platforms).Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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