TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Best-of-2 Dota 2 match between Aurora and Team Falcons at ESL One Birmingham Group B, scheduled for March 22, 2026. Markets span match outcome, individual game winners, and granular in-game metrics (kills, Roshan, barracks, rampages, ultras, day/night cycle timing, and first blood).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's match-outcome market contains a logical contradiction: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Team Falcons win, Aurora win, Tie) are specified to resolve to Yes if the match is played, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Polymarket's markets are internally consistent but diverge from Kalshi in scope and edge-case handling.Hero Tip:
Kalshi's match-outcome market (Items 1-3) is unresolvable due to logical contradiction and should be avoided. For Polymarket markets, note that in-game metrics (kills, Roshan, barracks, rampages, ultras, day/night, first blood) resolve 50-50 if the relevant game is never played or the series is already decided, whereas match/game-winner markets resolve 50-50 only on cancellation, tie, or delay beyond 7 days. Always verify final results via Dotabuff within 2 hours; credible video evidence is the fallback source.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Match-outcome market (Items 1-3) specifies that Yes resolves if Team Falcons wins ESL One Birmingham 2026, AND if Aurora wins, AND if Tie occurs. This is a logical impossibility—only one outcome can occur in a single match. The market is unresolvable as written. Key Quote: 'If Team Falcons wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Aurora wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Tie wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'Polymarket:
Match-outcome market (Item 6) and game-winner markets (Items 8, 18) use mutually exclusive binary logic: Aurora or Team Falcons, with 50-50 on cancellation/tie/delay. In-game metric markets (Items 2-5, 7, 10-17, 20-51) resolve 50-50 if the game is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or series already decided. This is internally consistent but differs from Kalshi's scope. Key Quote (Item 6): 'This market will resolve to Aurora if Aurora win the match... This market will resolve to Team Falcons if Team Falcons win... If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days... this market will resolve to 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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